To paraphrase Al Pacino in The Movie That Shall Not Be Considered a Godfather: Just when I thought I was out of the poll-gazing business, they pull me back in.
Now that we are 20 days out from the election, polling gets a lot more attention, and for good reasons. Pollsters want to get their most accurate numbers published in order to score well after the results of the election are known to establish their credibility in the next cycle. Voters begin to reach decisions on candidates up and down the ballot. Early voting becomes a bigger and more conclusive part of the picture. To paraphrase Kamala Harris, it’s a bigger deal at “20, 20, 20” than at “90, 90, 90.”
How does one read the polls, though? Typically, I keep my eye on aggregations, where trends are generally more reliable. RealClearPolitics has unweighted aggregations, and those clearly show trendlines favoring Trump at both…
