Whenever friends and family — those still speaking to me, of course — ask me what I think about the election, I always answer, “Cautious optimism.” The impulse to start measuring the drapes for a win always looms large, but data in politics is hard to read for conclusions in narrowly split electorates.
Looking at all of the polling, I’d rather be Donald Trump than Kamala Harris today, but either one could win this election based on a number of factors. The biggest known unknown at the moment would be GOTV, a large part of that equation that defies easy measure until after an election.
On the other hand, for the measures we do have, all signs seem to point in one direction. CNN’s Harry Enten laid them all out today, including one potential indirect measure of GOTV:
If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
No incumbent party has won another term…
