Statistician and polling analyst Nate Silver says that late-election polling groups are “herding” their survey results, or fidgeting with the fundamentals to rig the outcomes of their surveys.
A statistically anomalous amount of October poll results show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck in the swing states that could decide the 2024 election, according to Siver. Even if the candidates are running tight races in each of the swing states, normal variations in polling should show a wider smattering of results than currently exists.
Silver’s election forecasting model has a database of 249 polls that were at least partly done in month of October in battleground states. Of those polls, 193 of them, or nearly 80%, show Harris and Trump within 2.5 points, a statistical tie.
“That’s way more than you should get in theory — even if the…
