We only have a few facts with which to work if we want to predict the outcome of today’s election. I know that I could quadruple my page views by dropping little bits of good data for Trump or bad data for Harris, but the truth is that we don’t have enough good data to do more than make educated guesses about the outcome right now. This is not the 1984 election.
That means that anybody making a solid prediction about the outcome is reading their “gut,” the tea leaves, and casting chicken bones to come up with their prediction.
That’s not to say that there aren’t data points that matter and that give us solid hints; it’s just that without more solid data any prediction is more an assessment of the probabilities based on limited data. Think of these data as helpful but not dispositive. Predicting the outcome of the election is like predicting the winner of…
