The day before the election, Michelle Goldberg wrote a column for the NY Times titled “We’ve Been Underestimating the Scale of Women’s Fury.” The gist of it was that the Ann Selzer poll of Iowa was a leading indicator that Trump and his macho campaign for president was about to get wiped out by a tide of angry progressive women who wanted their abortions back.
All day, political nerds had been waiting for the results of J. Ann Selzer’s famously accurate poll of Iowa. The state hasn’t been swingy in a long time, but the Selzer poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register, can offer clues about broader trends in the electorate. In 2016, when many Democrats were feeling complacent about a Hillary Clinton victory, her survey showing Donald Trump leading by seven points in Iowa was an early indication of his underestimated strength in the Midwest. (He…
