The 2024 election is Donald Trump’s to lose.
Right now, he is running even with President Joe Biden in all the national polls. He’s running ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada; he’s running even in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; he’s closing within striking distance in Minnesota and New Hampshire. The map has radically expanded for him.
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval ratings are stagnant: He’s stuck at below 40%. Americans’ view of the economy remains dim, as does their view of Biden’s foreign policy; they don’t see Biden as a commanding or charismatic figure.
What’s more, Americans’ perceptions of the two candidates are unlikely to change dramatically before the election. Biden has been underwater with voters since September 2021 and his ignominious Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s been losing to or dead even with Trump in the national polling…
