Nate Silver launched his new prediction model for the 2024 election yesterday. The bottom line is that, while the national polling remains close, Silver no longer thinks it’s a toss up. Instead, his model points to a likely Trump win. Currently the model gives Trump a 65% chance:
Nate Silver election forecast is out pic.twitter.com/NChPNuMzJv
— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) June 26, 2024
Along with the results of his model, Silver also posted a lengthy companion story describing a lot of things in detail. He writes that he’s not a Trump supporter and this is the first time the results of his model haven’t aligned with his personal preference. In other words, he’d rather see Biden win but that’s not what the model is showing at the moment.
Biden has the lowest approval ratings of anyone running for re-election since either George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter, depending on how you squint at…
