Surges in military aggression near Taiwan since President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration last month are defining a provocative new Chinese military posture. At the same time, violent skirmishes with the Philippines are breaking out in the South China Sea, around Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing’s new commitment to escalation is a marked departure from its signature gray-zone activities, which now raises unprecedented issues for Washington.
Namely, how does Beijing’s new behavior in these two spaces fit into its broader strategic ambitions? And, more importantly, what happens next?
The most recent Chinese military demonstration followed the inaugural speech by Taiwan’s newly elected president on May 20. Lai has been vilified in Beijing and, as such, China didn’t miss the opportunity to express dissatisfaction with a show of force.
For a few days, China’s military…
