Since the beginning of October, there have been 32 nationwide surveys taken on what pollsters call a “generic congressional ballot.”
It’s a simple poll: Without being specific about candidates, the pollsters ask respondents who they will likely vote for in an election, Republicans or Democrats.
Of those 32 surveys, just two outlets — Economist/YouGov and Politico/Morning Consult — have shown Democrats with a lead.
Just a couple weeks ago, Economist/YouGov put Democrats ahead by four points. Politico/Morning Consult went further, saying Democrats were up by five points.
But every other pollster says Republicans enjoy a lead in the generic congressional ballot. In fact, a running average of all polls compiled by RealClearPolitics shows the GOP leads Democrats by 3 points.
But finally, on Tuesday, Politico/Morning Consult said the two parties were tied, 46-46.
NEW: For the first time in Morning Consult tracking among likely voters, Democrats do not lead Republicans on the generic ballot
Sept 29:
Democrats 49% (D+5)
Republicans 44%
Today:
Republicans 46% (=)
Democrats 46%https://t.co/yK3xtyw6On pic.twitter.com/3y4i5SO4Qs
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022
Politico, a website founded by two liberal reporters from The Washington Post, has clearly been trying to pretend the election is up for grabs. They’re the last to try to get their polls in line with reality. Even FiveThirtyEight.com, a site founded by a former New York Times reporter that has said for months that Democrats will hold the Senate, now says the GOP has a 53% chance of taking the chamber.
They’re late to the game. A poll released last week by USA Today, for instance, showed Republicans are four points over Democrats, 49-45. That was a big change from USA Today’s previous poll in July, when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.
One pollster says even that poll may be low, saying many election surveys are underestimating Republican candidates by five points. Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker predicts a huge GOP pickup in the House, “at least 54 seats, maybe one or two more.”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich agrees. “I would say we’ll be between plus three and plus seven … in the Senate; and we’ll be between plus 20 and plus 50 in the House, with the most likely number being plus 44,” Gingrich told The Epoch Times.
“Almost everywhere in the country, races are showing the Republicans tightening up,” Gingrich said, noting that inflation, crime, border security, and “woke policies” are all “coming together” against the Democrats’ favor.
For reference, in the 2014 mid-term elections, pre-vote generic polls put Republicans ahead by 2.4 points. But the real tally was nearly double that — Republicans spanked Democrats by 5.7 points, picking up nine U.S. Senate seats and 13 House seats.
In 2010, USA Today and Gallup put out a poll showing Republicans leading Democrats in a generic ballot 49-43. After the vote, the GOP dominated by 6.8 points, picking up six Senate seats and 63 House seats.
The polls have repeatedly been inaccurate in recent elections, often showing Democrats leading only to be proven wrong. “What we have is polling in aggregated battleground states that has continued in cycle after cycle that is inaccurate,” political analyst Spencer Abraham Jr. told Newsmax late last month. “And if it is inaccurate, someone needs to prove it.”
There’s no saving the Democrats now, and the pollsters know it. Watch the margin grow even wider in the coming days.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.
