California often acts as a bellwether for political trends in the United States – what happens here often signals what’s ahead for the nation. As conservatives reflect on Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory, the Republican Party must closely examine the lessons California offers. While Trump’s improved performance at the top of the ticket may seem encouraging, it exposes deeper issues within the GOP that extend far beyond the state.
At first glance, Trump’s numbers in California appear to show progress. In 2016, he lost the state by 4.2 million votes, securing just 31.6 percent. By 2020, he improved slightly to 34.3 percent, though the margin of loss widened to 5.1 million votes. In 2024, he captured 38 percent, narrowing the loss to 3.2 million votes. These gains are notable, but they mask the larger challenges the GOP faces.
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