The U.S. birth rate has been on a downward slide since the Great Recession. In 2024, the total fertility rate went up slightly though, but still by less than 1 percent. The total projected number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime is now 1.63, which is slightly above the 2023 projection, but still well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
The largest increase in births was among women in their 30s, while birth rates among women in their early 20s declined, as did the teen birth rate. An increase in the birth rate is good news, although one year of data is too little to tell if this indicates a shift in the overall trend of declining birth rates the U.S. has seen during the past decade and a half.
A major reason for declining U.S. fertility is the drop in marriage rates. The average number of births to married couples has remained quite steady for…
