The latest CBS Battleground Tracker poll estimates that Republicans will gain at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
The poll predicts the GOP will control 228 seats compared to the Democrats’ 207.
The latest projection, with a margin of error of plus or minus 12 seats, is based on a similar model used by the poll that accurately predicted the 2018 midterm election outcomes.
“Our 2018 model performed particularly well, steadily tracking Democrats’ improvement in key congressional races and the eventual blue wave in the House. In fact, our high-turnout scenario nailed the final result, when it came to pass that historic turnout powered Democratic gains,” the Battleground Tracker poll stated.
The model also seems to reflect other recent national polls that suggest a red wave likely to flip the House to the GOP. For example, a Friday Rasmussen Reports Poll estimated a seven-point lead by Republicans nationwide among likely U.S. voters.
The survey found that “if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. voters would choose the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another five percent (5%) are not sure.”
A Trafalgar Group study from October also showed GOP voters ahead at 48.2% support versus Democrats at 42.4%. Another 9.4% were undecided in their response.
Cook Political Report also updated its midterm numbers, now estimating that Republicans could flip up to 25 seats. The number is far more than the previously estimated 10-20 seats reported earlier.
In addition to the House, there is growing hope among Republicans that the party could also retake power in the Senate.
Rick Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman, said the GOP would have at least 52 Senate seats after the 2022 midterms. Speaking during Sunday’s “State of the Union” on CNN, the senator argued his party would win several of the most controversial battles in the Senate.
“Herschel Walker will win Georgia. We’re going to keep all 21 of ours. Oz is going to win against Fetterman in Pennsylvania. And Adam Laxalt will win in Nevada. But I think we have every reason to believe we can pick up with Blake Masters in Arizona, with Don Bolduc [in New Hampshire],” Scott said.
Republicans must get to at least 51 seats to break the current 50-50 tie in the Senate. Democrats currently hold power in the chamber as the vice president holds the tie-breaking vote.
Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was caught last week expressing concern about certain Senate seats in a hot mic moment with President Joe Biden.
“The state where we’re going downhill is Georgia,” Schumer said to Biden. “It’s hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker.”
The Senate Majority Leader also shared his concern about Pennsylvania.
“It looks like the debate didn’t hurt us too much in Pennsylvania as of today, so that’s good,” Schumer told the president.
