I know some are worried about those Kamala Harris poll numbers.
Now it stands to reason she would get a bit of a bounce simply by being alive and not being Joe Biden. And it’s also important to understand that there’s some oversampling of Democrats going on in some of these polls. But there’s another thing that’s important to understand here, and CNN’s Harry Enten spelled it out. It’s essential to understand how the polls can fool you.
Enten says we’ve been here before, that the polls underestimated Trump in the key battleground states in both 2016 and 2020 by nine and five points, respectively.
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May
