‘Democrats Have A Turnout Problem Today’: Leading Elections Expert Live-Reports Dems In Trouble

Roughly halfway through Election Day on the East Coast, a leading political prognosticator, looking at early precinct voting patterns, concluded that the Democrats were in serious trouble.

Dave Wasserman runs the non-partisan Cook Political Report, and he was watching the data from states on the East Coast and extrapolating from what he had seen by roughly 1 p.m. EST.

“It’s pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today – one that’s unlikely to be solved in the next six hours,” Wasserman concluded.

It’s pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today – one that’s unlikely to be solved in the next six hours.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2022

Then he got down to brass tacks, examining turnout in swing states such as Virginia and Florida: “Noon turnout reports in VA Beach -—a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria’s (D) Toss Up #VA02 — show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of ’21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts.  Total ballots cast skewing much more R than ’20 in many FL counties, esp. Miami-Dade.”

Wasserman cited recent political history to buttress his claims of genuine trouble for Democrats at the ballot box: “In recent years, R voters have generally enjoyed their largest turnout advantage in the first 2-3 hours of EDay voting. So, it’s possible these gaps will narrow – and these are just two states. But, these are just large differentials for Dems to overcome in the next few hours.”

In recent years, R voters have generally enjoyed their largest turnout advantage in the first 2-3 hours of EDay voting. So, it’s possible these gaps will narrow – and these are just two states.

But, these are just large differentials for Dems to overcome in the next few hours.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2022

In 2020, the Cook Political Report accurately predicted the results of the presidential race and the senatorial races, but severely underestimated the seats the GOP would win in the House. They acknowledged after the election:

Our Electoral and Senate ratings generally performed well, with every race at least “leaning” to one party breaking that direction and Toss Ups breaking to the GOP — save for Georgia, where Joe Biden prevailed and both Senate races are in runoffs. But in the House, Republicans nearly swept the 27 races in our Toss Up column and won seven races in our “Lean” and “Likely” Democrat columns. 

Analyzing the takeaways from the results, Cook Political Report acknowledged, “Republicans’ attacks on ‘socialism’ and ‘defund the police’ were potent – and Democrats didn’t do enough to blunt them.”