Most Americans are so dissatisfied with the economy that they think the nation is already in recession. Yet the Biden administration often cites robust job growth as proof that the economy is in great shape.
New data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia throw cold water on that claim, however. It shows recent job growth has been 80% less than previously estimated.
Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces an estimate for the number of payrolls that businesses added, or subtracted, on net balance. According to those reports, annualized job growth in the last quarter of 2023 was a healthy 1.6%. But that’s likely way off.
The Philadelphia Fed takes these data from BLS and compares them with a much more comprehensive estimate of the labor market each quarter. That allows for better estimates of job growth than can be gleaned…
