Explainer: Why NBC always gets the generic ballot polls wrong

In the closing days of the midterm election cycle, every Tom, Dick, and Harry in the media was busy posting their final polling tallies, particularly the state of the generic ballot. There were definite variations, but most of them showed the GOP with a slight advantage in the single digits. One outlier was NBC News, who called the generic ballot as being tied at 47% each for all voters and showing a one percent lead for Democrats among likely voters, raising the hopes of liberals around the country that the predicted bloodbath wouldn’t be quite as bloody as they’d feared. When you notice an outlier, however, it’s worth looking at their history. Are they being prescient or are they off the mark? And if the latter, is it just a statistical error, or are you seeing intentional bias in the wording of the questions or the sample size? As the Free Beacon noted yesterday, when it comes to NBC News in the modern era, they have almost always landed a bit away from the rest of the pack, and it’s been nearly uniformly to the benefit of the Democrats.Read More