A new poll by Morning Consult shows GOP challenger Bernie Moreno leading Democrat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown 47-46. Somehow, Sherrod Brown has managed to weaponize ticket-splitters in Ohio. In his last race, he beat Republican Jim Renacci by seven points, even though Trump carried the stated by eight points in 2020. In 2012, Brown bested Josh Mandel by six, and Obama carried the state by three. Brown is second on Roll Call’s list of the seven most vulnerable senators.
I’m a poll skeptic but I put some store in this one. In 2018, at this point, Brown was leading Renacci by six points. Even though the RCP average has Brown leading by 2.6 points, the individual polls show him in freefall. In September, Brown was up by five, but he’s been +1 in three of the last four polls and up by two in the other. This poll is by Morning Consult, a poll that I think breaks crazy Democrat.
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