Today, Nate Cohn has an analysis of polling data collected by the NY Times and Siena College. What it shows is exactly what this earlier Vox article also found. Democrats did not lose the 2024 election because of turnout. Put another way, they didn’t lose because the progressive base was unenthusiastic and decided to stay home. They lost because swing voters turned away from them and toward Donald Trump.
The low turnout among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups — especially nonwhite voters — was a reflection of lower support for Harris: Millions of Democrats soured on their party and stayed home, reluctantly backed Harris or even made the leap to Trump…
…in a presidential election, turnout and persuasion often go hand in hand. The voters who may or may not show up are different from the rest of the electorate. They’re less ideological….
