This is pretty much what I said Tuesday but it’s nice to have company. Writing an opinion piece for the NY Times, pollster Nate Silver says the polls definitely show the race is a dead head, meaning there’s no way to predict the winner with any certainty. It’s going to be a coin toss.
However, Silver says people ask him all the time what his “gut” tells him. And rather than dodge the question, he just comes out and says it. It feels like Trump is going to win.
So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.
But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr….
