Humans are not very good fortune tellers, not even when there’s lots of data on which to make educated guesses. That’s certainly been true of recent political polling in 2016 and 2020 and to a lesser degree in 2018. Nevertheless, the pressure to make predictions is strong. So today, Matt Yglesias has put forward his best guess as to what will happen nationally next month. His conclusion is that polls are once again underestimating GOP strength in various races and that, partly because of that bad data, Democrats are going to underperform even current (low) expectations.
Matt Yglesias: Republicans will win the House and probably the Senate
