One of the most important variables that sticks out in polls is one that few people seem to have noticed: for the first time ever in Gallup polls, Republicans have a Party ID edge over Democrats right before a presidential election.
“More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Here’s What That Means for the Election.”https://t.co/lzNNZV0k7q
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 9, 2024
NBC polls are showing the same thing, and the effect is not small. It makes a huge difference that the partisan tilt of the electorate has shifted.
Beneath the headline results in many polls, something unusual has turned up with big implications for politics: More voters are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats, suggesting that the GOP has its first durable lead in party identification in more than three decades.
The development gives former President Donald Trump an…
