With the 2024 elections rapidly receding in the background, political hacks like me are increasingly focused on the upcoming 2026 federal elections for all 435 U.S. House seats.
The conventional wisdom says that the opposition party is likely to gain seats in mid-terms for Congress, which would benefit the Democrats.
In my view, this is probable, although big gains are not likely for the Democrats in 2026 because of where we are in the boom or bust cycle.
As I have said before, when it comes to House races, there is a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. Meaning if one party wins big one year, the other party usually (but not always) rebounds. The rebound can be big or small. If it is the latter, then the next successive…
