By this point in the cycle, most observers believe Republicans will control the Senate in 2025. They only need to flip two seats to take firm control, and only one if Donald Trump and J.D. Vance win the election and Vance can cast tie-breaking votes.
The loss of Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia s already baked into the calculations, which is why the RCP map has the GOP with 50 solid seats, and only 7 toss-ups. Democrat incumbent Jon Tester has trailed by a significant margin in every Montana poll since the summer, which RCP lists as leaning GOP. Similarly, Democrats have had solid and consistent leads in Arizona, while Ted Cruz has a 4-plus point lead in the RCP aggregation for Texas despite their labeling it a “toss up.” A 51-seat majority seems pretty locked in at the moment, especially since Texas is the only GOP-incumbent state in the “toss up”…
