Nate Cohn has a long newsletter today looking over the results of 2024 and putting it in context over the past 15 years or so of American politics. The bottom line is that Democrats appear to be in real trouble.
Not so long ago it was taken as a given that changing demographics, fewer white people and more Hispanic and Asian people, would create a permanent majority for the Democrats. But what we’ve seen over the past 3 elections is that Donald Trump has broken up that consensus a little at a time to the point where the old consensus now looks like a fantasy. This chart really sums it up.
In contrast, the only group that has moved significantly toward Democrats is white Americans with a college degree (+17). What Trump has done here came as a real shock to Democrats.
In each campaign, win or lose, Mr. Trump made major inroads among longtime Democratic…
