Welcome to the New Hampshire Republican primary, otherwise known as the Graveyard of Broken Blogger Dreams. If Iowa proved that political polling in this cycle can be effectively predictive in a caucus, get ready for a real blowout tonight for Donald Trump.
Nikki Haley’s betting that her more moderate approach will appeal to the New England voter set, but that’s not what polls show this past week. At the moment, Trump has a 22-point lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate average in the Granite State, and hasn’t been below 50% in any poll here in the past two weeks. Haley hasn’t led here, ever, and still hasn’t broken 40% in any poll. The last time Trump trailed was in January 2023, and that was when Ron DeSantis led two UNH polls.
In fact, Trump hit his peak in today’s Suffolk/Boston Globe tracking poll. That came as DeSantis’ voters shifted in favor of Trump over…
