Or, as I’d put it perhaps less optimistically: Seven battleground states all end in virtual dead heats in Emerson polling. Add to that this is only one pollster in a sea of survey companies, albeit one with a little more heft. Healthy skepticism should be the rule, but we have other data that may justify sunnier takes on these new results.
Let’s take a look at the final poll results in each of the states. First off, Kamala Harris only leads in one state, and ties in two others, while Donald Trump has leads in four:
- AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
- GA: Trump 50%, Harris 49%
- MI: Harris 50%, Trump 48%
- NC: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
- PA: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- WI: Trump 49%, Harris 49%
Taking these at face value, the Electoral College map would produce a win for Trump, even without the three states in which Harris ties or has a lead:
Should we take these at…
