Early voting is underway nationwide, the last rounds of polling are being undertaken, and a good hard look at what’s going on can only leave one with the impression that the Trump/Vance campaign is a lot happier than the Harris/Walz camp right now. It’s a bit early to break out the celebratory champaign and Big Macs, but all in all, it’s looking like it’s Trump’s year.
There’s another indicator: Betting odds are also trending towards the GOP, and those have been predictive in the past.
Well over $500 million were bet on the 2020 election, and that number has surged in 2024. Just under two weeks out, more than $2.3 billion have been bet on the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket alone. This raises the question: What is election betting, and do betting odds reflect actual probability?
Maxim Lott, founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, explained to the…
