Polls polls everywhere, and not a drop to think …
After a week off in sunny SoCal, it seemed like a good time to take a look at polling in the presidential contest. As it turns out, not much has changed, especially at the national level, although the small changes that have emerged favor Donald Trump. A new NBC News national poll shows Trump in a dead heat with Kamala Harris, a five-point shift in the month since their previous survey. ABC/Ipsos went from Harris +4 in September to +2 last week; CBS went from +4 to +3 Harris.
Maybe that’s not momentum, or perhaps it could show the start of a preference cascade. That argument looks stronger in the betting markets, where Harris’ prospects have begun to fade — and perhaps rapidly. Since getting anointed as the Democrat nominee, Harris has mainly led in these markets. Even when Trump briefly regained the lead in the RCP aggregation…
