One of the most striking things about following this campaign is the fact that election projections are all over the place.
I was chatting with a political science professor friend of mine, and he was projecting a 1980 Reagan-style victory for Trump–an assessment I tend to agree with–while the online analysts are showing a dead heat with a slight advantage to Kamala Harris.
While Nate Silver has been more Trump-bullish, even his latest projection shows a very slight advantage for Harris.
The answer, of course, comes down to the polls and what you take away from them. Most of the polls show Harris with a very modest lead in the national horserace, although one that doesn’t match Biden’s in 2020. That, in itself, should make you a bit skittish about believing that these polls are favorable to Harris. If Trump’s numbers are better today than in 2020, and Harris is doing worse…
